Highlights from the Spend Management Outlook

The Vizient Spend Management Outlook, a comprehensive resource that combines the former Pharmacy Market Outlook and the Budget Impact Projections report with additional insights, launched this week, providing insight into supply and pharmacy trends anticipated from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026.

The Outlook projects the price of products purchased throughout Vizient provider client health systems and hospitals in both acute and ambulatory care environments, providing a year-over-year estimate of the expected price change and equipping healthcare leaders with critical information to make informed strategic and financial decisions.

Here are the main highlights for pharmacy and medical devices and services supply chain spend.

Pharmacy spend

• 3.84% projected inflation rate for the overall pharmacy spend: The projected overall drug price inflation rate from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026, is forecasted at 3.84% — slightly higher than the 3.81% forecasted in the summer 2024 Pharmacy Market Outlook. Several factors drive the trend of continued increasing inflation rates, including an increase in specialty and complex medications dominating new drug approvals, increased utilization of previously approved medications that were granted additional indications, higher-than-customary price increases for previously approved products, and payer restrictions influencing site of care and class of trade implications for pharmacy services.
• New inflation rate projections for acute and ambulatory care: By classifying medications into their typical site of administration, Vizient produced inflation projections on segments of the market. The projected inflation rate of acute care is 3%, while ambulatory care is projected at 3.96% due to the ongoing growth of ambulatory spaces. Ambulatory care was subcategorized into provider administered (3.33%), self-administered (4.53%) and specialty and complex medications (4.44%). The projected inflation rate for self-administered ambulatory care is the highest of all ambulatory and acute care segments at 4.53%. The high cost and widespread use of these specialty medications, especially in autoimmune and inflammatory disease states, translates to high costs and increased revenue for ambulatory pharmacies.

  Figure 1. Utilization of injectable GLP-1 agonists, 2022-2024

  
• Top 15 drugs by spend: Humira, which has approvals in dermatology, gastroenterology and rheumatology, continues to hold the top position of hospital spend. Tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) moved for the first time into the overall top 15 list at No. 10 due to its spend doubling year over year.

  Table 1. Top medication spend among Vizient pharmacy program participants (all classes of trade)

  
• High-impact FDA approvals for 2025: High-impact drugs across multiple classes like autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, hematological diseases, neurology or oncology are anticipated for FDA approval in 2025 and could significantly impact hospital spending.

Supply chain products and materials, capital and services

• 2.3% overall projected inflation rate for supply chain costs: Vizient estimates that market prices encompassing medical products as well as indirect spend and purchased services will increase an average of 2.3% from July 2025 to June 2026. Factors driving cost increases include long-term elevated prices for raw materials, cost pressures for freight and shipping, and tariffs impacting several medical-surgical (med-surg) products manufactured in China.
• Increased inflation rate for medical and surgical supplies: The med-surg supply category is expected to rise 2.3% and includes the previously finalized tariffs on several products manufactured in China including supplies critical to healthcare such as gloves, needles, syringes and certain face masks. IV pumps, tubing and solutions make up the highest category for medical and surgical spend at 10.8%.

Table 2. Top 15 categories for medical and surgical product spend

Read the new Spend Management Outlook.